Since September 2025, the H-1B visa has been through a proclamation fee, a court ruling that struck it down, and a new proposed fee to replace it - and the number of people even bothering to apply has already dropped by more than a third. As a licensed immigration consultant fielding these questions every week, I keep getting the same one from clients and readers on both sides of the border: does this actually make Canada a better bet? Here's what changed, who it hits hardest, and - more usefully - what's real versus what's still just a signal from Ottawa.
- The $100,000 H-1B proclamation fee was vacated by a US federal court on June 8, 2026; DHS answered on August 25, 2026 with a proposed $103,265 rule that is still in public comment through September 24, 2026
- FY2027 H-1B registrations already fell 38.5% before the new fee was even proposed, and Indian nationals took 283,772 of 406,348 approvals in FY2025 - nearly 70% of the total (USCIS, via Business Standard, May 2026)
- Canada does not currently have a dedicated H-1B pathway open. The 2023 stream filled its 10,000-permit cap in a single day and has stayed closed since; a new accelerated pathway is committed but not yet launched
- Of the roughly 10,000 people who got a Canadian permit in 2023, only about 12% actually moved - most treated it as a backup option, not an exit plan
- The real decision for Indian professionals right now is a three-way bet between a costlier US, a Canada that's signaling but hasn't delivered, and India's own GCC hiring boom, which added 32,000 Big Tech jobs in 2025 alone
What Actually Happened to the H-1B Fee
In September 2025, a presidential proclamation imposed a $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions, an amount large enough to make sponsoring most entry- and mid-level roles uneconomical. On June 8, 2026, a US District Court in Massachusetts vacated that fee, ruling in California v. Mullin that it amounted to an unlawful tax imposed without congressional authorization (DiRaimondo & Schroeder, "US District Court Declares $100,000 H-1B Fee Unlawful," June 2026).
DHS did not let the door stay open. On August 25, 2026, it filed a new proposed rule for a $103,265 fee on every H-1B cap-subject petition, this time through formal rulemaking rather than a proclamation (Campos Law Firm, "DHS Proposes a $103,265 Fee on Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions," 2026). Public comment runs through September 24, 2026, and DHS still has to review those comments before it can issue a final rule with an actual effective date.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| September 2025 | Presidential proclamation imposes a $100,000 H-1B fee |
| March 19, 2026 | FY2027 H-1B registration window closes, down 38.5% year over year |
| June 8, 2026 | Massachusetts federal court vacates the $100,000 fee as an unlawful tax |
| August 25, 2026 | DHS proposes a replacement $103,265 fee via formal rulemaking |
| September 24, 2026 | Public comment period on the new fee closes |
Notice what didn't reverse: the registration drop. That 38.5% decline happened before the June ruling, meaning employers and applicants had already adjusted their behavior to the threat of the fee, not just its enforcement. A rule getting struck down doesn't automatically restore the confidence that drove people to apply in the first place. That's the part worth sitting with before assuming this is over.
Why This Lands Hardest on India
In fiscal year 2025, India accounted for 283,772 of the 406,348 H-1B petitions USCIS approved, close to 70% of the total, while China took a distant second at 49,161 (Business Standard, "India's 283,772 H-1B Visa Approvals in FY25 Spark Fresh US Jobs Debate," May 2026). No other nationality group is remotely as exposed to a fee that raises the cost of every single sponsorship.
The pressure isn't only coming from Washington. Roughly 62% of all H-1B approvals that year were tied to technology and IT roles, and Indian tech workers have already absorbed over 80,000 US tech job losses between 2022 and 2024 (Rest of World, "H-1B Visa Chaos: Tech Talent Flees U.S. for Canada & UAE," 2026). At the same time, American Big Tech firms added 32,000 jobs in India in 2025, a three-year high, as companies quietly shift work to where the talent already lives.
Every client conversation I've had on this since August has the same shape: someone with a stable H-1B job, watching their employer's legal team go quiet on next year's sponsorship budget, asking me whether they should start a Canada file "just in case." That hedge instinct is rational. Where people go wrong is treating "just in case" as a plan instead of what it actually is: an option that needs its own timeline.
Is Canada's Pathway Actually Open?
No, not right now, and this is the part most headlines skip. Canada's dedicated H-1B open work permit stream opened July 16, 2023, hit its 10,000-application cap the very next day, and has carried a plain "Status: Closed" on Canada.ca ever since (Government of Canada, "Closed: H-1B Visa Holder Work Permit"). There is no open-application version of that specific program to apply to today.
What does exist is a commitment. Budget 2025 promised a new accelerated pathway for H-1B holders aimed at STEM, healthcare, research, and advanced industries. On August 4, 2026, IRCC opened a public consultation on Express Entry category-based selection for 2027 that names H-1B holders among the groups under consideration, with that consultation closing September 1, 2026. As of this writing there is no approved category, no published eligibility rules, and no start date.
This gap between signal and substance matters more than most coverage admits. A consultation naming H-1B holders as a "priority group under consideration" is a real data point about where policy is heading. It is not a program you can apply to, and treating it as one is how people burn months waiting for a door that hasn't been built yet, instead of using the doors that are already open.
For readers not on H-1B who are weighing Canada more broadly, the general skilled-worker route is the one that's actually live right now - I broke that down in Canada Is Rewriting Express Entry.
What the 2023 Cohort Really Tells Us
Here's the number that should reset expectations: of the roughly 10,000 people who secured a Canadian open work permit in that 2023 window, industry estimates put actual relocation at only around 12%. Most people who applied wanted the option sitting in their back pocket. They didn't want to move yet, and many still haven't.
Ottawa's response to that same cohort is telling in a different way. Budget 2025 proposes fast-tracking up to 33,000 existing work-permit holders on H-1B-linked pathways to permanent residence in 2026 and 2027. Read the two numbers together: Canada isn't chasing volume, it's trying to convert the people who already showed real intent into permanent residents.
Companies are hedging too, not just individuals. Microsoft's "Project Move" temporarily transfers staff to Vancouver on Canadian work permits, then brings them back to the US later on L-1 intracompany transfer visas once conditions allow (Rest of World, 2026). It's the same insurance-policy logic as the 2023 cohort, just running through corporate immigration teams instead of personal LinkedIn posts.
"Global talent does not wait for the U.S. to get its policy house in order," Danielle Goldman, CEO of Build Talent Labs, put it (Rest of World, 2026). That's the accurate read. People aren't abandoning the US in a single dramatic move. They're quietly building parallel options and using whichever door opens first - which is exactly why watching the actual policy details matters more than watching the headlines.
The Practical Playbook Right Now
If you're on H-1B and weighing Canada today, the honest starting point is that the dedicated pathway isn't your lever yet. What is live: the Express Entry system through categories like Canadian Experience Class and the STEM and healthcare occupation streams, the Global Talent Stream for employer-sponsored expedited work permits, and provincial nominee programs tied to specific job offers.
Three moves make sense while the H-1B-specific pathway is still forming. First, get your credential assessment and language test done now - these take months and don't depend on which program eventually opens. Second, track the September 24, 2026 comment deadline on the DHS fee rule and the outcome of IRCC's Express Entry consultation; both will clarify real timelines within the next quarter. Third, don't let "Canada might open a door" stop you from using the doors already open, especially if your US timeline is uncertain.
As an RCIC, the mistake I see most often isn't picking the wrong pathway - it's picking no pathway while waiting for the "better" one to materialize. Sunguk Moon, CEO of the tech forum TeamBlind, said it plainly: "People have stopped waiting for U.S. policy to improve" (Rest of World, 2026). The same logic applies in reverse - don't wait for Canada's policy to finish forming either. Run the process you can start today.
Weighing a Move While the Rules Are Still Moving?
As a licensed immigration consultant, I help tech professionals and founders build a real Canada timeline against the pathways that exist today, not the ones still in consultation. If you want a clear read on your options, let's talk it through.
Book a Strategy Call →The Bigger Picture
Strip away the headlines and three forces are moving at once. The US is making H-1B sponsorship more expensive and less predictable, whatever the final number lands on. Canada is signaling a bigger welcome without having delivered the mechanism yet. And India's own market is pulling in the opposite direction, with Big Tech's 32,000 new India jobs in 2025 showing that "go home" is now a genuinely competitive third option, not a consolation prize.
That's the real framing for anyone in this position: it isn't a US-versus-Canada decision anymore. It's a three-way bet between a costlier incumbent, a promising but unfinished alternative, and a home market that's actively building capacity to receive you. I've written more on that third leg in Reverse Migration: When Going Back Becomes Going Forward.
The founders and professionals who come out ahead here won't be the ones who guess correctly which door opens first. They'll be the ones who kept more than one door moving at once, so that whichever one opens, they're already standing in front of it. That's not hedging out of fear - it's just how you make an irreversible decision under genuine uncertainty.
For the broader case on why Canada is worth that parallel-track effort in the first place, see Why Indian Entrepreneurs Are Moving to Canada, and for the PR-versus-citizenship sequencing once you're in, Canada PR vs. Citizenship.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the $100,000 H-1B fee still in effect?
No. The $100,000 fee came from a presidential proclamation in September 2025. On June 8, 2026, a US District Court in Massachusetts (Judge Leo Sorokin, in California v. Mullin) vacated it as an unlawful tax. DHS responded on August 25, 2026 with a new proposed $103,265 rule, but that proposal is still in public comment and has no confirmed effective date.
What is the new $103,265 H-1B fee proposal?
DHS filed a proposed rule for the Federal Register on August 25, 2026 that would charge $103,265 on every H-1B cap-subject petition, with cap-exempt employers like universities excluded. The public comment period runs through September 24, 2026, after which DHS must review comments before it can issue a final rule with an actual effective date.
Can H-1B holders get an open work permit for Canada right now?
Not through a dedicated H-1B stream. Canada's original H-1B open work permit program closed on July 17, 2023, a single day after it opened, once it hit its 10,000-application cap. Budget 2025 committed to a new accelerated pathway and IRCC opened a related Express Entry consultation in August 2026, but as of September 2026 there is no live program, no eligibility rules, and no start date.
How many Indian professionals hold H-1B visas?
India received 283,772 of the 406,348 H-1B petitions USCIS approved in fiscal year 2025, close to 70% of the total, far ahead of China's 49,161 (USCIS; Business Standard, May 2026). Roughly 62% of all approvals that year were tied to technology and IT-related occupations.
What happened to the 2023 cohort of Canada H-1B work permit holders?
Most didn't move. Industry estimates suggest only around 12% of the roughly 10,000 people who secured a permit in the 2023 window actually relocated to Canada, treating it as a backup option rather than an immediate plan. Budget 2025 now proposes fast-tracking up to 33,000 existing work permit holders to permanent residence in 2026-2027.
The honest summary is less dramatic than the headlines suggest. Nothing about the US H-1B system is settled, and nothing about Canada's response to it is finished either. What's real is the direction: costs and uncertainty rising on one side, a slow but visible build-out of capacity on the other, and India's own labour market absorbing more of the talent that used to leave by default.
If you're trying to time a decision inside that uncertainty, the fix isn't to wait for clarity that may not arrive on your schedule. It's to start the process that's actually open today while keeping the others warm.
If you want help mapping that against your specific timeline, contact me and let's work through it together.
Sources
- DiRaimondo & Schroeder, US District Court Declares $100,000 H-1B Fee Unlawful, retrieved 2026-09-14, June 8, 2026
- Campos Law Firm, DHS Proposes a $103,265 Fee on Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions, retrieved 2026-09-14, 2026
- Business Standard, India's 283,772 H-1B Visa Approvals in FY25 Spark Fresh US Jobs Debate, retrieved 2026-09-14, May 2026
- Rest of World, H-1B Visa Chaos: Tech Talent Flees U.S. for Canada & UAE, retrieved 2026-09-14, 2026
- Government of Canada, Closed: H-1B Visa Holder Work Permit, retrieved 2026-09-14
- Moving2Canada, Canadian Work Permit for H-1B Holders: Accelerated Pathway, retrieved 2026-09-14, 2026
